By Guest Blogger: Farah Thompson
As a disclaimer, this prediction is completely based upon my observations and my gut.
I think President Trump is going to win re-election, and I think it’s going to be a lot bigger win than anyone expects—or at least it will be bigger than was expected a week ago. Here’s my reasoning.
I’ve seen a lot of enthusiasm for Trump within my circles and very little enthusiasm for Biden. That enthusiasm is at least equal to 2016 if not stronger, and many right-leaning voters who were “Never Trumpers” in 2016 are now avid Trump supporters (Dave Rubin for one, as well as Ben Shapiro and others at the Daily Wire—just to name a few).
Also, Americans rarely vote a president out of office unless he follows 8 years by another president of the same political party—for instance, Bush Sr. followed the Reagan administration and got voted out after one term. Crisis could encourage change, but when it comes to crisis of war we typically re-elect. I would be surprised if Covid is the crisis that changes the trend.
Another trend that favors Trump’s re-election is the complete and utter lack of faith most people have in the media. Plus, with the rise of cancel culture, of course people aren’t answering pollsters honestly. You might not put pollsters in the same category as journalists, but I guarantee that enough people do.
Also, there is the pre-covid economy to consider, which was thriving. On top of that, the 3rd quarter recovery post-covid was stunning. The sitting president typically gets the credit (or blame) for whatever the economy does during his term, so a good economy is conducive to re-election.
I remember 2016, when people lost their minds that the New York Times dared to lower Hillary’s chances of winning from 99% to 95%. Something like less than 24 hours later, that prediction was in smoking ruins. I was shocked myself—at the time, I thought there was no way Trump would beat Hillary. I was wrong, along with much of America.
So there’s my little prediction about who will win. I recently wrote that no matter who wins, our nation needs more Jesus. I firmly believe that. Nothing I’ve said here contradicts that, I’m just indulging my enjoyment of the twists and turns of politics. It’s a bit like predicting which team will win the super bowl, only armchair quarterbacking for politics instead of NFL teams.
For more insightful and educated analysis, I would recommend you look up Steve Deace’s content. I haven’t quoted any of his posts, but they have contributed to my mindset and the filter through which I have been viewing polls and other information.